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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."